Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$35k
Total volume$434k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 04:06 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 07:19 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 05:41 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
Check the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard for the highest-ranked model at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The outcome is Yes if Google owns that top model and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the date or ignore the specific requirement to use the 'Text Arena | Overall' tab with style control off.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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