Will the right bloc win the Spanish election by 60-69 seats?
Why it moved: +11 points at 12:21 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Millions join Spain's first general strike in 14 years as anger over housing leads to clashes — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 12 Nov, 14:38 UTC | 17% |
| 12 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Nov, 12:41 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 17:22 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 15:21 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 14:20 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Nov, 11:09 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Nov, 10:53 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the seat margin between the right bloc (PP and Vox) and the left bloc after the November 29, 2026 election. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if that margin falls between 60 and 69 seats in favor of the winning bloc. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a general strike for the actual election results, but only the official congressional seat count matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 83%
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