Will Wales win on 2026-10-04?
Implied probability 23%−6
24-hour volume$297
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 23% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 20:43 UTC | 25% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Wales wins the match scheduled for October 4, 2026, and No otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle or extra time as the deciding factor, but only the regulation time score counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 23%
- No 78%
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