Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
Implied probability 31%+5
24-hour volume$81
Total volume$114k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves4 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 32% |
| 5 Oct, 05:43 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 12:44 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 11:35 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 06:24 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 05:38 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Nate Silver’s approval rating drops to 35% or lower at any point during 2026. The rating must come from Silver Bulletin’s green trend line, and only finalized data points count toward the result. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the official source or assume any poll below 35% triggers the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 70%
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