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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Resolved: Yes 35d ago

The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$251k
Total volume$3.6M
Liquidity$114k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
0%50%100%100%14 Sept, 05:50 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
20 Sept, 16:44 UTC100%
20 Sept, 15:43 UTC100%
20 Sept, 15:17 UTC100%
20 Sept, 14:41 UTC98%
20 Sept, 14:24 UTC98%
20 Sept, 13:43 UTC99%
20 Sept, 13:16 UTC98%
20 Sept, 12:57 UTC98%
20 Sept, 12:26 UTC98%
20 Sept, 11:55 UTC97%
20 Sept, 11:25 UTC97%
20 Sept, 09:09 UTC97%
20 Sept, 08:57 UTC97%
20 Sept, 08:15 UTC97%
20 Sept, 07:46 UTC97%
20 Sept, 06:52 UTC97%
20 Sept, 06:25 UTC97%
20 Sept, 05:53 UTC98%
20 Sept, 05:12 UTC98%
20 Sept, 04:26 UTC98%
20 Sept, 03:56 UTC98%
20 Sept, 03:24 UTC98%
20 Sept, 02:54 UTC98%
20 Sept, 01:51 UTC98%
20 Sept, 01:24 UTC98%
20 Sept, 00:54 UTC98%
20 Sept, 00:21 UTC98%
19 Sept, 23:46 UTC98%
19 Sept, 23:25 UTC99%
19 Sept, 22:55 UTC99%
19 Sept, 22:22 UTC99%
19 Sept, 21:46 UTC99%
19 Sept, 21:27 UTC99%
19 Sept, 20:57 UTC99%
19 Sept, 18:58 UTC99%
19 Sept, 15:08 UTC99%
19 Sept, 13:30 UTC99%
19 Sept, 12:07 UTC99%
19 Sept, 11:37 UTC99%
19 Sept, 11:25 UTC99%
19 Sept, 08:33 UTC99%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC99%
18 Sept, 01:59 UTC99%
18 Sept, 01:10 UTC99%
18 Sept, 00:22 UTC98%
17 Sept, 23:44 UTC99%
17 Sept, 23:09 UTC98%
17 Sept, 22:50 UTC98%
17 Sept, 22:28 UTC98%
17 Sept, 21:41 UTC98%
17 Sept, 21:12 UTC98%
17 Sept, 19:02 UTC98%
17 Sept, 18:37 UTC99%
17 Sept, 18:28 UTC98%
17 Sept, 17:20 UTC99%
17 Sept, 16:25 UTC98%
17 Sept, 15:39 UTC99%
17 Sept, 14:57 UTC99%
17 Sept, 14:23 UTC98%
17 Sept, 13:42 UTC99%
17 Sept, 11:08 UTC98%
17 Sept, 10:29 UTC99%
17 Sept, 09:36 UTC98%
17 Sept, 09:23 UTC98%
17 Sept, 07:47 UTC98%
17 Sept, 07:02 UTC98%
17 Sept, 06:55 UTC98%
17 Sept, 06:19 UTC98%
17 Sept, 05:58 UTC98%
17 Sept, 05:19 UTC98%
17 Sept, 04:47 UTC99%
17 Sept, 04:04 UTC99%
17 Sept, 03:53 UTC98%
17 Sept, 03:02 UTC98%
17 Sept, 01:35 UTC98%
17 Sept, 00:58 UTC98%
17 Sept, 00:04 UTC98%
16 Sept, 21:27 UTC98%
16 Sept, 20:31 UTC98%
16 Sept, 20:16 UTC98%
16 Sept, 19:54 UTC98%
16 Sept, 18:51 UTC98%
16 Sept, 18:25 UTC98%
16 Sept, 17:08 UTC98%
16 Sept, 15:26 UTC98%
16 Sept, 14:45 UTC98%
16 Sept, 14:22 UTC98%
16 Sept, 12:25 UTC98%
16 Sept, 11:40 UTC98%
16 Sept, 11:26 UTC98%
16 Sept, 10:01 UTC98%
16 Sept, 09:54 UTC98%
16 Sept, 09:19 UTC98%
16 Sept, 07:36 UTC98%
16 Sept, 07:15 UTC98%
16 Sept, 06:54 UTC98%
16 Sept, 06:17 UTC97%
16 Sept, 05:56 UTC98%
16 Sept, 05:19 UTC97%
16 Sept, 04:43 UTC97%
16 Sept, 00:25 UTC98%
15 Sept, 23:33 UTC98%
15 Sept, 23:00 UTC98%
15 Sept, 22:32 UTC98%
15 Sept, 22:04 UTC98%
15 Sept, 21:39 UTC97%
15 Sept, 21:13 UTC98%
15 Sept, 20:47 UTC98%
15 Sept, 19:53 UTC97%
15 Sept, 19:25 UTC97%
15 Sept, 18:46 UTC97%
15 Sept, 18:03 UTC97%
15 Sept, 17:27 UTC97%
15 Sept, 16:27 UTC97%
15 Sept, 15:54 UTC97%
15 Sept, 15:26 UTC97%
15 Sept, 14:53 UTC97%
15 Sept, 14:25 UTC97%
15 Sept, 13:53 UTC97%
15 Sept, 13:25 UTC97%
15 Sept, 12:53 UTC97%
15 Sept, 12:29 UTC97%
15 Sept, 11:47 UTC97%
15 Sept, 11:23 UTC97%
15 Sept, 10:56 UTC97%
15 Sept, 10:24 UTC96%
15 Sept, 09:58 UTC96%
15 Sept, 09:27 UTC97%
15 Sept, 07:37 UTC97%
15 Sept, 05:58 UTC97%
15 Sept, 05:14 UTC97%
15 Sept, 04:58 UTC97%
15 Sept, 04:22 UTC97%
15 Sept, 03:59 UTC97%
15 Sept, 02:03 UTC97%
15 Sept, 01:28 UTC97%
15 Sept, 00:49 UTC96%
14 Sept, 23:44 UTC96%
14 Sept, 23:28 UTC97%
14 Sept, 22:44 UTC97%
14 Sept, 22:16 UTC97%
14 Sept, 21:49 UTC97%
14 Sept, 21:12 UTC97%
14 Sept, 20:47 UTC97%
14 Sept, 19:46 UTC97%
14 Sept, 19:22 UTC97%
14 Sept, 18:54 UTC97%
14 Sept, 18:29 UTC97%
14 Sept, 17:53 UTC97%
14 Sept, 17:29 UTC97%
14 Sept, 16:43 UTC98%
14 Sept, 16:18 UTC97%
14 Sept, 15:34 UTC98%
14 Sept, 15:25 UTC97%
14 Sept, 14:57 UTC97%
14 Sept, 14:17 UTC97%
14 Sept, 13:50 UTC97%
14 Sept, 13:18 UTC97%
14 Sept, 12:59 UTC97%
14 Sept, 11:44 UTC97%
14 Sept, 11:28 UTC97%
14 Sept, 10:29 UTC97%
14 Sept, 09:59 UTC97%
14 Sept, 09:10 UTC97%
14 Sept, 08:36 UTC97%
14 Sept, 08:28 UTC97%
14 Sept, 07:58 UTC97%
14 Sept, 07:25 UTC97%
14 Sept, 06:55 UTC97%
14 Sept, 05:50 UTC97%

What counts

Israel must broadly suspend commercial flights across its civilian airspace by 11:59 PM ET on September 30 for the market to resolve to Yes. Limited delays, temporary ground stops, or restrictions imposed by other countries do not count toward this outcome.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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