Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?
Implied probability 99%+5
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$57k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Nov, 11:35 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 09:40 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 96% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the winner of Illinois's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The No outcome applies if that winner belongs to the Republican Party or any other party.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%
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