Will Slovenia win on 2026-09-26?
The market favoured No at 63% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$165k
Total volume$166k
Liquidity$197k
Resolved26 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 10:05 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 09:33 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Sept, 09:31 UTC | 37% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Slovenia wins the match scheduled for September 26, 2026, and No otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle or extra time as the deciding factor, but only the regulation time score counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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