France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
Why it moved: +5 points at 05:47 UTC, after ABC News: How France’s worst rioting in years erupted and how the government responded — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 09:04 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 14% |
| 19 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 9% |
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 takes effect in France by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The declaration must explicitly constitute a state of emergency as defined by that specific law; other measures like public health emergencies or states of siege do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
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