Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Why it moved: +13 points at 17:22 UTC, after Times of India: Flydubai incident: Indian pilot stable, co-pilot in custody; Saudi, UAE launch probes — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the Israeli government officially states that Iran or its proxies deliberately caused the Flydubai pilot stabbing incident by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The statement must come from an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, such as a Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 74%
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