Spread: Bears (-1.5)
The market favoured Packers at 51% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$59k
Total volume$67k
Liquidity$87k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 11 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 0% |
| 11 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 0% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 15% |
| 11 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 49% |
| 11 Oct, 12:05 UTC | 50% |
| 11 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 49% |
| 10 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 50% |
What counts
The Bears outcome requires them to win by two or more points in the scheduled game. The Packers outcome applies if they win by any margin or if the Bears win by one point. Readers often mistake the final score for a simple winner-take-all result, ignoring the required two-point spread.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bears 0%
- Packers 100%
View this market on Polymarket →