Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 46% |
| 30 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 56% |
| 30 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google launches a new Gemini Pro model that is publicly accessible between now and October 31, 2026. The release must be clearly announced by Google as available to the general public, excluding closed betas or non-Pro variants like Flash. Readers often mistake the headline's October 9 date for the resolution deadline, but the actual cutoff is October 31.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 80%
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