Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?
Why it moved: −17 points at 01:27 UTC, after The Hill: Hamawy wins open New Jersey House seat, succeeding Watson Coleman — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 06:44 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 33% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 33% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 24% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the winner of Florida's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The No outcome applies if that winner belongs to the Republican Party or any other party.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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