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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?

Implied probability 28%−5
24-hour volume$893
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Dec 2027

Why it moved: −7 points at 12:27 UTC, after Axios: Scoop: AOC shakes up team again as 2028 decision looms — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
0%50%100%28%8 Nov, 15:58 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now28%
12 Nov, 14:46 UTC28%
12 Nov, 14:18 UTC27%
12 Nov, 13:43 UTC28%
12 Nov, 13:16 UTC27%
12 Nov, 12:54 UTC28%
12 Nov, 12:27 UTC29%
12 Nov, 09:30 UTC35%
12 Nov, 09:23 UTC35%
12 Nov, 08:56 UTC35%
12 Nov, 08:23 UTC35%
12 Nov, 07:56 UTC34%
12 Nov, 07:29 UTC35%
12 Nov, 06:55 UTC34%
12 Nov, 02:53 UTC34%
12 Nov, 02:20 UTC34%
12 Nov, 01:39 UTC34%
12 Nov, 00:46 UTC34%
12 Nov, 00:11 UTC34%
11 Nov, 23:52 UTC34%
10 Nov, 20:07 UTC33%
10 Nov, 04:08 UTC33%
9 Nov, 23:04 UTC34%
9 Nov, 21:56 UTC34%
9 Nov, 19:30 UTC34%
9 Nov, 19:14 UTC41%
9 Nov, 18:39 UTC45%
9 Nov, 18:26 UTC44%
9 Nov, 17:57 UTC45%
9 Nov, 17:15 UTC45%
9 Nov, 16:54 UTC45%
9 Nov, 16:12 UTC45%
9 Nov, 15:58 UTC45%
8 Nov, 15:58 UTC42%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez explicitly announces a run for either the US Senate or the US Presidency by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if she does not make such an announcement by that deadline. Readers often mistake exploratory committees or vague statements of interest for a qualifying announcement.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 28%
  • No 72%

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