Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 11:44 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI owns the model with the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at noon ET on November 30, 2026. The resolution relies strictly on the official leaderboard data from that specific source and time, ignoring any models marked as AutoEval. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the month or assume other ranking systems determine the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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