Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31?
Why it moved: +28 points at 18:59 UTC, after The Hill: Senate committee sets key vote for Trump FDA nominee — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 53% |
| 12 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 53% |
| 12 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 53% |
| 12 Nov, 05:48 UTC | 55% |
| 12 Nov, 05:15 UTC | 60% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 61% |
| 12 Nov, 04:28 UTC | 59% |
| 12 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 59% |
| 12 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 60% |
| 12 Nov, 02:53 UTC | 60% |
| 12 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 59% |
| 12 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 59% |
| 11 Nov, 23:31 UTC | 59% |
| 11 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 60% |
| 11 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 60% |
| 11 Nov, 20:42 UTC | 51% |
| 11 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 50% |
| 11 Nov, 19:20 UTC | 51% |
| 11 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 57% |
| 10 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 29% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
Heidi Overton must receive formal Senate confirmation as FDA Commissioner by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome immediately becomes No if her nomination is withdrawn or rejected by the Senate. Readers often mistake recess appointments for valid confirmations, but these do not count toward a Yes resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 53%
- No 48%
Trade this market on Polymarket → Sponsored link: it carries our referral code. How the site is funded.