Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by September 30?
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 02:57 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 22:44 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 22:44 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes only if the U.S. Senate formally confirms Heidi Overton as FDA Commissioner by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No immediately if her nomination is withdrawn or rejected by the Senate. Readers often mistake recess appointments for confirmation, but these do not count toward a Yes outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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