Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 21:12 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 14:33 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Nov, 12:34 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 11:50 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Nov, 08:36 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 03:13 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Nov, 19:30 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Nov, 07:11 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 78% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 78% |
| 31 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 81% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 80% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 78% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 77% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 77% |
| 31 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 78% |
| 31 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 76% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 77% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 77% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 76% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 75% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 05:44 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 03:14 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 68% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Democrat wins the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome occurs if a Republican or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution; the market waits until the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or until official certification if they do not agree.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 80%
- No 21%
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