Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Implied probability 6%−6
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$141k
Liquidity$24k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 11:46 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 09:26 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Sept, 05:11 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 22:04 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 21:22 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 17:38 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 11:06 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 09:43 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 10:05 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 00:49 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 20:32 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 13:04 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 00:13 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 08:01 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 06:37 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 00:23 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 23:02 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 21:36 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 21:02 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 19:14 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 19:35 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Sept, 14:12 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 21% |
| 22 Sept, 07:17 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 06:45 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 06:14 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 03:09 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 02:00 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 01:25 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 00:32 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 00:26 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Sept, 22:56 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 19:19 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 15:29 UTC | 17% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russian and Ukrainian officials hold an in-person diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Readers often mistake indirect talks through mediators for non-qualifying events, but these do count if authorized by the governments.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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