Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$633
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$44k
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 0% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 09:20 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 22:56 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 19:55 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 15:49 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 15:29 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 14:55 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Sept, 14:00 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 13:53 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 9% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if United Russia secures 60% or more of the federal party-list vote, while No applies if it falls below that threshold. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the market resolves based on results known by September 30, 2027. The source of truth is official Russian government data, not media reports, and only federal party-list votes count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →