Will the next Gemini model family be named Gemini Hydrogen?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 13:50 UTC | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 13:16 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 10:06 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 07:43 UTC | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 06:22 UTC | 98% |
| 12 Nov, 05:48 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 94% |
| 12 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 94% |
| 12 Nov, 02:33 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 95% |
| 12 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 93% |
| 12 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 93% |
| 11 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 22:31 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Nov, 22:06 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 21:52 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 89% |
| 11 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 88% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google releases a new general-purpose Gemini model family by December 31, 2026, whose official name includes the word Hydrogen. It resolves to No if such a release occurs but does not include that word, or if no qualifying release happens by the deadline. Readers often mistake API identifiers, codenames, or specialized models for the official general-purpose family name.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%
Trade this market on Polymarket → Sponsored link: it carries our referral code. How the site is funded.