Will United States win on 2026-10-03?
The market favoured No at 66% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$110k
Total volume$145k
Liquidity$613k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 38% |
What counts
The United States wins if it scores more goals than Mexico during the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time in the match scheduled for October 3, 2026. The market resolves to "No" if the game is canceled with no make-up, or if the US does not win within that specific timeframe.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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