Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 12 Nov, 13:43 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Nov, 13:16 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 21% |
| 12 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Nov, 11:18 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Nov, 07:16 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Nov, 06:22 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Nov, 05:55 UTC | 40% |
| 12 Nov, 05:15 UTC | 40% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 45% |
| 11 Nov, 23:31 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Nov, 21:16 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Nov, 20:15 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 20% |
| 11 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 18% |
| 11 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 16:03 UTC | 18% |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 18% |
| 11 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 11:58 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 10:53 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 09:23 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Nov, 07:43 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Nov, 05:29 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 04:42 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 04:21 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 20% |
| 11 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Nov, 00:04 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 22:47 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 20:48 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Nov, 19:27 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Nov, 18:52 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 18:10 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 17:43 UTC | 14% |
| 10 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Nov, 16:54 UTC | 19% |
| 10 Nov, 16:25 UTC | 20% |
| 10 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 22% |
| 9 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a qualifying Fable model 5.2 or higher appears on the Arena.AI leaderboard and holds a score of at least 1530 at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first shows up. The resolution relies solely on the specific Score column in the Text Arena | Overall tab, ignoring any AutoEval labels or unrounded data.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%
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