Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 16:32 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Nov, 16:32 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if no qualifying Gemini Carbon model reaches the general public by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if such a model launches publicly before that deadline. Readers often mistake internal testing or closed beta access for a valid release, but only open public availability counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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