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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$89k
Total volume$296k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves1 Nov 2026

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What counts

Iran must publicly agree to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile or any part of it to an entity outside Iran and its influence by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake a deal that merely limits enrichment levels for one that surrenders the stockpile, which does not count toward a Yes resolution.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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