Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
The market favoured No at 96% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$55k
Total volume$64k
Liquidity$42k
Resolved26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 01:19 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 100% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 80% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of exactly 2% to 4%. It resolves to No if his victory margin falls outside that range or if another candidate wins.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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