Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 4%+1
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$78k
Liquidity$33k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 04:42 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 04:47 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 03:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Xi Jinping permanently leaves his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary removals or caretaker roles do not count as permanent departure. Readers often mistake scheduled departures or temporary suspensions for valid resolution events.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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