Will Harry Kane finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
The market favoured Yes at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Why it moved: +5 points at 23:03 UTC, after News Feed: England captain Harry Kane wins Ballon d’Or — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 27 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 93% |
What counts
Harry Kane finishes in the top two of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking for Yes to resolve. The market resolves to No if he does not place in the top two, if the award is canceled or postponed past November 9, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or if the final two places remain undetermined by that deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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