Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
The market favoured Falcons at 54% a day out, but Bengals won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$945k
Total volume$947k
Liquidity$30k
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 8 Nov, 18:23 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Nov, 17:07 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 50% |
| 8 Nov, 12:07 UTC | 49% |
| 8 Nov, 02:00 UTC | 47% |
What counts
The Bengals outcome triggers if they win by four or more points in the scheduled November 8 game. The Falcons outcome applies if the Bengals win by three points or fewer, or if the game ends in a tie. Readers often mistake the point spread for a requirement to cover the -3.5 line rather than winning by at least four points.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bengals 100%
- Falcons 0%
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