Slovenia leading at halftime?
The market favoured No at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$39k
Resolved26 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 28% |
What counts
The Yes outcome requires Slovenia to be ahead in score during the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The No outcome applies if Scotland leads, or if the teams are tied at that point. Readers often mistake the final match winner for the deciding factor, but only the halftime score matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →