China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$60
Total volume$1.4M
Liquidity$75k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Chinese and Japanese military forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Incidents involving only the Japan Coast Guard do not count because it is not part of the military.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
Trade this market on Polymarket →