Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$994k
Liquidity$134k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 0% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
SpaceX must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on December 31, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company holding that top spot results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake the date of the Starship launch for the resolution deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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