Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?
Why it moved: −3 points at 03:54 UTC, after NOAA NHC Atlantic: Hurricane Isaias Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 05:07 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 05:52 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the National Hurricane Center explicitly reports that Isaias made landfall in Mississippi while maintaining hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph before October 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution relies strictly on the official NHC advisory text stating the center's position and intensity; visual track maps or wind speed estimates from other agencies do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
Trade this market on Polymarket →