Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 5%−3
24-hour volume$235k
Total volume$451k
Liquidity$130k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Kim Jong Un stops being Supreme Leader at any point before December 31, 2026, including through resignation, removal, detention, or permanent inability to perform his duties. A public announcement of his departure before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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