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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$804
Total volume$386k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
0%50%100%2%15 Sept, 15:54 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now2%
22 Sept, 14:05 UTC2%
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15 Sept, 15:54 UTC2%

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What counts

For the Yes outcome, Tesla or SpaceX must officially announce an acquisition or merger that results in one company gaining controlling interest by September 30, 2026. For the No outcome, no such qualifying announcement occurs within this timeframe. Readers often mistake the Starship launch date for the relevant deadline.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 2%
  • No 98%

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