Gemini Hydrogen released by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: −10 points at 23:18 UTC, after marktechpost.com: Google Launches Gemini Decisions API With Gemini Decision 1 at $0.10/M Tokens — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 13:43 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 13:16 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 12:27 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 11:41 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 11:18 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 10:20 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 97% |
| 12 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 08:16 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 05:15 UTC | 96% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 93% |
| 12 Nov, 04:28 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Nov, 01:06 UTC | 89% |
| 12 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 00:25 UTC | 89% |
| 11 Nov, 23:52 UTC | 79% |
| 11 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 76% |
| 11 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 86% |
| 11 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the market to resolve to "Yes," Google must release a model named "Hydrogen" or confirm another model as the same one, making it publicly accessible by November 30, 2026 (ET). The model must be available to the general public through an open beta or similar public access method, not just closed beta or private access.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%
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