Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 11 Nov, 21:24 UTC | 15% |
| 11 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Nov, 17:08 UTC | 14% |
| 11 Nov, 10:46 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Nov, 00:04 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 23:08 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Nov, 10:41 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 09:31 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Nov, 13:47 UTC | 17% |
| 9 Nov, 10:47 UTC | 17% |
| 9 Nov, 09:36 UTC | 14% |
| 9 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 14% |
| 9 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 11% |
| 7 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 12% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on which political party wins the most seats in Spain's Congress of Deputies during the November 29, 2026 general election. For the "Yes" outcome, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) must secure more seats than any other party after applying tie-breaking rules if necessary.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 85%
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