Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$878k
Total volume$8.0M
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 07:23 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 0% |
| 8 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 04:31 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is named the sole winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, or if he is among joint recipients and ranks highest according to the specific precedence rules. It resolves to No if any other individual or organization wins, or if none of the listed candidates receive the award.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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