Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 2 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 91% |
| 2 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 93% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 94% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Sept, 11:36 UTC | 94% |
| 28 Sept, 08:00 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 06:41 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 91% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins fewer than 32 seats in the October 27, 2026 election, counting any seats from joint lists or merged parties. It resolves to No if Likud wins 32 or more seats, or if results are not known by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff in June 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 91%
- No 10%
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