Italy leading at halftime?
Why it moved: −3 points at 18:28 UTC, after CNET: Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Italy vs. Türkiye From Anywhere — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 48% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 51% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Italy leads at any point during the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if Italy does not lead within that specific timeframe or if the match is canceled without a make-up game. Readers often mistake the final match winner for the deciding factor, but only the scoreline at halftime matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 53%
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