Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Implied probability 66%−6
24-hour volume$765
Total volume$40k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 66% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the AfD holds at least one minister or senator position in any German state government before January 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if the party does not hold such a post by that deadline. Readers often mistake announced coalition negotiations or mere parliamentary support for actual government membership.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 66%
- No 35%
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