Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
Why it moved: +9 points at 16:18 UTC, after The Verge: Gemini can now call businesses for you so you don’t have to wait on hold — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 81% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 81% |
| 23 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 72% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a new Gemini Pro model appears on the Humanity’s Last Exam website with an HLE Accuracy of 50% or higher by noon Eastern Time the day after it is first listed. The resolution depends solely on the percentage shown in the official result card, ignoring calibration error or other metrics.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 81%
- No 20%
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