Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28?
Why it moved: +5 points at 20:29 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Israel revokes diplomatic status of Dutch diplomats in Ramallah — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 85% |
| 27 Sept, 05:36 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 85% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 85% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to “Yes” if Israel launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits Lebanon’s land or internal waters on September 28 (IDT). It resolves to “No” if no such strike occurs, including cases where munitions are intercepted before impact, only ground forces move, or threats are announced without execution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 91%
- No 10%
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