Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?
The market favoured No at 51% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$19k
Total volume$60k
Liquidity$27k
Resolved31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 11:31 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 18:52 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 15:28 UTC | 49% |
| 20 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 58% |
| 20 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 54% |
| 20 Sept, 13:16 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 10:21 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 09:53 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 09:03 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 08:51 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 03:07 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 49% |
| 19 Sept, 23:12 UTC | 50% |
| 19 Sept, 22:55 UTC | 50% |
| 19 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 50% |
| 19 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 49% |
| 19 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 48% |
| 19 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 46% |
| 19 Sept, 19:11 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 18:16 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 17:56 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 16:24 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 15:20 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 44% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 44% |
| 19 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 44% |
| 19 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 43% |
| 19 Sept, 10:21 UTC | 43% |
| 19 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 42% |
| 19 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 42% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 42% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 43% |
| 18 Sept, 05:06 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Sept, 00:35 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Sept, 00:29 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Sept, 23:57 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Sept, 23:03 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Sept, 22:56 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Sept, 21:18 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Sept, 20:59 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Sept, 19:57 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 17% |
| 17 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 17% |
| 17 Sept, 18:28 UTC | 17% |
| 17 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 17% |
| 17 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 17% |
| 17 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 13:21 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 12:48 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 11:14 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 08:25 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 07:53 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 06:43 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The market resolves based on whether the Alternative for Germany party wins or ties for the most seats in any of the three specified elections: Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, or Berlin. The outcome depends on the official results published by these specific parliamentary bodies, not on other German state elections held in September 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →