Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?
Why it moved: −4 points at 20:25 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Trump says Europe agreed to release ‘massive amount’ of diesel reserves — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 10:19 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 05:38 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Sept, 05:45 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 04:27 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the US President, White House, Cabinet member, or authorized agency officially announces a prohibition on diesel exports by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly and unambiguously declare a ban on all or substantially all diesel exports through official channels.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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