Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$9.6M
Liquidity$365k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by official Republican Party sources. It resolves to “No” otherwise. Readers often mistakenly believe that any change in the nominee before election day affects the outcome, but only the final accepted nomination counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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