Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$36k
Resolved1 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 14:22 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Sept, 00:05 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative for Germany party secures more than half of the seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament during the September 20, 2026 election. It resolves to No if the party fails to win that majority or if voting does not happen by January 31, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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