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Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved: Yes 2h ago

The market favoured Yes at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$26k
Total volume$103k
Liquidity$28k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
0%50%100%100%1 Nov, 21:34 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
4 Nov, 03:48 UTC99%
4 Nov, 03:26 UTC99%
4 Nov, 02:56 UTC98%
4 Nov, 02:19 UTC96%
4 Nov, 01:57 UTC94%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC94%
4 Nov, 00:58 UTC94%
4 Nov, 00:22 UTC93%
3 Nov, 23:24 UTC97%
3 Nov, 22:56 UTC97%
3 Nov, 22:19 UTC97%
3 Nov, 21:57 UTC97%
3 Nov, 19:06 UTC96%
3 Nov, 17:58 UTC96%
3 Nov, 17:26 UTC96%
3 Nov, 16:55 UTC97%
3 Nov, 16:26 UTC97%
3 Nov, 15:43 UTC97%
3 Nov, 15:14 UTC97%
3 Nov, 14:46 UTC97%
3 Nov, 14:25 UTC96%
3 Nov, 13:48 UTC96%
3 Nov, 13:11 UTC96%
3 Nov, 12:50 UTC97%
3 Nov, 12:28 UTC97%
3 Nov, 11:06 UTC98%
3 Nov, 08:46 UTC98%
3 Nov, 07:55 UTC98%
3 Nov, 07:12 UTC97%
3 Nov, 06:30 UTC97%
3 Nov, 06:23 UTC96%
3 Nov, 04:51 UTC96%
3 Nov, 04:29 UTC96%
3 Nov, 03:19 UTC96%
3 Nov, 02:51 UTC96%
3 Nov, 00:26 UTC96%
2 Nov, 23:51 UTC96%
2 Nov, 22:09 UTC96%
2 Nov, 20:16 UTC96%
2 Nov, 19:54 UTC96%
2 Nov, 17:56 UTC96%
2 Nov, 17:11 UTC96%
2 Nov, 16:04 UTC96%
2 Nov, 14:56 UTC96%
2 Nov, 13:48 UTC97%
2 Nov, 13:26 UTC97%
2 Nov, 12:56 UTC97%
2 Nov, 11:57 UTC96%
2 Nov, 11:22 UTC96%
2 Nov, 09:45 UTC96%
2 Nov, 08:01 UTC96%
2 Nov, 07:47 UTC96%
2 Nov, 06:42 UTC96%
2 Nov, 06:21 UTC97%
2 Nov, 05:53 UTC96%
2 Nov, 05:24 UTC96%
2 Nov, 04:26 UTC96%
2 Nov, 03:49 UTC96%
2 Nov, 03:06 UTC96%
2 Nov, 02:58 UTC96%
2 Nov, 01:24 UTC97%
2 Nov, 00:55 UTC97%
1 Nov, 23:07 UTC97%
1 Nov, 22:46 UTC97%
1 Nov, 21:34 UTC97%

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Democratic or other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date, but the market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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