Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?
The market favoured No at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$40k
Liquidity$0
Resolved23 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 18:10 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 16:11 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 15% |
What counts
For the Yes outcome, Google must make a qualifying Gemini Carbon model publicly available between November 16 and November 22, 2026. For the No outcome, this does not happen within that specific week. Readers often mistake a closed beta or an internal testing phase for a public release, but only open access counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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