Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
Implied probability 4%
Total volume$92k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Israeli government officially declares sovereignty over West Bank territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such official act occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake informal settler control or administrative changes for annexation, but only a formal legal declaration counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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