Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?
Why it moved: +26 points at 10:50 UTC, after MarketWatch: Here’s the math on Amazon CEO’s claim to be on path to two trillion-dollar revenue businesses — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 13% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on Amazon's total public market capitalization calculated at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. A "Yes" outcome requires this value to fall between $2.00 trillion and $2.50 trillion, while a "No" outcome occurs if it falls outside that range.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 62%
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